Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFlamengo to win ✓76% · @1.18
Double chanceFlamengo or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗17% · fair 6.05
Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin preview and prediction
The match
Independiente Medellin travel to Estádio do Maracanã in the CONMEBOL Libertadores on Friday 17 April (01:30 WAT) to face Flamengo. Flamengo are 1st with 16 points from 6 games, while Independiente Medellin sit 3rd on 7 points.
Form guide
Flamengo's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Cusco 2–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Independiente Medellin's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Atletico Nacional 2–3 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Flamengo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 2.1 for Flamengo and 0.5 for Independiente Medellin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 49%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Flamengo 2–0 Independiente Medellin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Flamengo76%fair 1.31 · @1.18
Draw15%fair 6.75 · @6.40
Independiente Medellin9%fair 11.46 · @14.00
2.59Expected goals
2.10Flamengo xG
0.49Independiente Medellin xG
49%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–017%
1–016%
3–012%
2–18%
1–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Flamengo 2.1 – 0.5 Independiente Medellin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Flamengo to win✓
76%
1.31
1.18
Double chance
Flamengo or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.31
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.55
Half-time result
Flamengo ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Flamengo / FT Flamengo✓
50%
2.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
17%
6.05
–
Form
Flamengo – last 6
WLDWWW
9 Apr
@ Cusco
2–0
W
3 Apr
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
23 Mar
@ Corinthians
1–1
D
20 Mar
vs remo
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Botafogo
3–0
W
12 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente Medellin – last 6
LDDWLW
12 Apr
vs Atletico Nacional
2–3
L
9 Apr
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–1
D
3 Apr
@ Once Caldas
1–1
D
31 Mar
vs America de Cali
2–1
W
23 Mar
@ Santa Fe
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Junior
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flamengo and Independiente Medellin.
What is the prediction for Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
On our numbers Flamengo have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Independiente Medellin 9%.
How many goals will there be in Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Our predicted score is Flamengo 2–0 Independiente Medellin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin?
Flamengo vs Independiente Medellin (CONMEBOL Libertadores) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Maracanã.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Penarol1
Platense2