Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Macara to win @ 3.35 – our chance 37% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMacara to win ✓37% · @3.35
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.26
Alianza Atletico vs Macara preview and prediction
The match
Alianza Atletico host Macara in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana on Friday 1 May, with kick-off at 03:00 (WAT) at Estadio Miguel Grau. Alianza Atletico are 4th with 2 points from 6 games, while Macara sit 1st on 10 points.
Form guide
Alianza Atletico's last 5: WLLDW Most recently they beat Universitario 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Macara's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Universidad Catolica 0–4 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Alianza Atletico and 1.0 for Macara. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Value angle: Macara to win at 3.35 – 37% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Alianza Atletico 0–0 Macara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alianza Atletico37%fair 2.71 · @2.38
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.88
Macara37%fair 2.71 · @3.35
1.96Expected goals
0.98Alianza Atletico xG
0.98Macara xG
50%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–014%
0–114%
1–014%
1–114%
0–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alianza Atletico 1.0 – 1.0 Macara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Macara to win✓
37%
2.71
3.35 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.49
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.26
–
Form
Alianza Atletico – last 6
WLLDWD
27 Apr
@ Universitario
2–1
W
22 Apr
@ Comerciantes Unidos
0–1
L
16 Apr
@ America de Cali
1–2
L
8 Apr
vs Tigre
1–1
D
4 Mar
vs Deportivo Garcilaso
2–0
W
27 Feb
vs ADT
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Macara – last 6
LWWDLW
24 Apr
@ Universidad Catolica
0–4
L
20 Apr
vs Barcelona SC
3–1
W
16 Apr
@ Tigre
1–0
W
10 Apr
vs America de Cali
1–1
D
6 Apr
vs Aucas
0–1
L
18 Mar
vs Delfin SC
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alianza Atletico and Macara.
What is the prediction for Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
On our numbers Alianza Atletico have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Macara 37%.
How many goals will there be in Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Our predicted score is Alianza Atletico 0–0 Macara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Alianza Atletico vs Macara?
Alianza Atletico vs Macara (CONMEBOL Sudamericana) kicks off on Friday 1 May 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Miguel Grau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
