CD Motagua host Génesis in the Liga Nacional on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles. CD Motagua are 4th with 28 points from 14 games (in the top four), while Génesis sit 8th on 15 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
CD Motagua's last 5: DWWWD Most recently they drew with Real Espana 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Génesis's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Juticalpa 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
CD Motagua arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for CD Motagua and 0.8 for Génesis. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Motagua 68%, draw 21%, Génesis 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was CD Motagua to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: CD Motagua 2–0 Génesis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Motagua68%fair 1.46 · @1.35
Draw21%fair 4.87 · @4.60
Génesis11%fair 8.98 · @7.00
2.99Expected goals
2.20CD Motagua xG
0.80Génesis xG
53%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
3–09%
1–19%
3–17%
From our goals model: CD Motagua 2.2 – 0.8 Génesis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Motagua to win✓
68%
1.46
1.35
Double chance
CD Motagua or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.74
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.48
Half-time result
CD Motagua ahead at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Motagua / FT CD Motagua✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Form
CD Motagua – last 6
DWWWDW
23 Mar
vs Real Espana
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Platense FC
1–0
W
12 Mar
vs Lobos Upnfm
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Choloma
3–1
W
2 Mar
vs Olancho
1–1
D
26 Feb
@ Juticalpa
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Génesis – last 6
LWLDLW
2 Apr
vs Juticalpa
0–1
L
25 Mar
@ Atlético Choloma
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Real Espana
1–2
L
11 Mar
vs Olancho
0–0
D
2 Mar
vs Lobos Upnfm
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ CD Marathon
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Motagua and Génesis.
Our pick is CD Motagua to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win CD Motagua vs Génesis?
On our numbers CD Motagua have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Génesis 11%.
How many goals will there be in CD Motagua vs Génesis?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Motagua vs Génesis?
Our predicted score is CD Motagua 2–0 Génesis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is CD Motagua vs Génesis?
CD Motagua vs Génesis (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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