Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Paris Saint Germain or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Paris Saint Germain to win @ 1.71 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultParis Saint Germain to win ✓65% · @1.71
Double chanceParis Saint Germain or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool preview and prediction
The match
Paris Saint Germain host Liverpool in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 8 April, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Parc des Princes. Paris Saint Germain are 1st with 12 points from 4 games (top of the table), while Liverpool sit 8th on 9 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Paris Saint Germain's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Toulouse 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Liverpool's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Manchester City 0–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for Paris Saint Germain and 1.1 for Liverpool. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Paris Saint Germain 65%, draw 19%, Liverpool 16%.
Safer route: Paris Saint Germain or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Paris Saint Germain to win at 1.71 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Paris Saint Germain or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Liverpool. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Paris Saint Germain65%fair 1.53 · @1.71
Draw19%fair 5.39 · @4.10
Liverpool16%fair 6.22 · @4.10
3.53Expected goals
2.40Paris Saint Germain xG
1.13Liverpool xG
63%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Paris Saint Germain 2.4 – 1.1 Liverpool expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paris Saint Germain to win✓
65%
1.53
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.15
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.80
1.62
Half-time result
Paris Saint Germain ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paris Saint Germain / FT Paris Saint Germain✓
43%
2.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.49
–
Form
Paris Saint Germain – last 6
WWWLDW
3 Apr
vs Toulouse
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Chelsea
3–0
W
11 Mar
vs Chelsea
5–2
W
6 Mar
vs Monaco
1–3
L
25 Feb
vs Monaco
2–2
D
17 Feb
@ Monaco
3–2
W
2.8Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Liverpool – last 6
LWDLWL
4 Apr
@ Manchester City
0–4
L
18 Mar
vs Galatasaray
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Tottenham
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Galatasaray
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ Wolves
3–1
W
3 Mar
@ Wolves
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paris Saint Germain and Liverpool.
What is the prediction for Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool?
Our pick is Paris Saint Germain or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool?
On our numbers Paris Saint Germain have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Liverpool 16%.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool?
Our predicted score is Paris Saint Germain 2–1 Liverpool, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool?
Paris Saint Germain vs Liverpool (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Parc des Princes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
