Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
1
Value bet: Mekelakeya to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAwassa Kenema to win ✗38% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.68
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.30
Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema preview and prediction
The match
Awassa Kenema travel to face Mekelakeya in the Premier League on Sunday 19 April (16:00 WAT). Mekelakeya are 2nd with 10 points from 5 games (in the top four), while Awassa Kenema sit 11th on 5 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mekelakeya's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Dire Dawa Kenema 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Awassa Kenema's last 5: DLDWD Most recently they drew with Suhul Shire 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Mekelakeya arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Mekelakeya and 1.0 for Awassa Kenema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Mekelakeya to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Mekelakeya 0–1 Awassa Kenema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mekelakeya36%fair 2.75 · @3.00
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.90
Awassa Kenema38%fair 2.63 · @2.30
2.01Expected goals
0.99Mekelakeya xG
1.02Awassa Kenema xG
41%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–114%
0–013%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Mekelakeya 1.0 – 1.0 Awassa Kenema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Awassa Kenema to win✗
38%
2.63
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.30
–
Form
Mekelakeya – last 6
WWDDDW
15 Apr
@ Dire Dawa Kenema
2–1
W
10 Apr
@ Sidama Bunna
3–1
W
3 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Fasil Ketema
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Ethiopia Nigd Bank
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Awassa Kenema – last 6
DLDWDD
15 Apr
vs Suhul Shire
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Fasil Ketema
0–1
L
5 Apr
vs Welwalo Adigrat Uni
2–2
D
10 Mar
vs Mekelle Kenema
1–0
W
4 Mar
@ Welayta Dicha
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Dire Dawa Kenema
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mekelakeya and Awassa Kenema.
What is the prediction for Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema?
On our numbers Mekelakeya have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Awassa Kenema 38%.
How many goals will there be in Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema?
Our predicted score is Mekelakeya 0–1 Awassa Kenema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema?
Mekelakeya vs Awassa Kenema (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Arba Minch Kenema1
Dire Dawa Kenema0