Value bet: Sheger Ketema to win @ 3.45 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahardar to win ✗39% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✓71% · @1.42
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.67
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.87
Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema preview and prediction
The match
Sheger Ketema travel to face Bahardar in the Premier League on Monday 20 April (11:00 WAT). Bahardar are 7th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Sheger Ketema sit 12th on 5 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Bahardar's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Ethiopian Medhin 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sheger Ketema's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Negelle Arsi 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.6 goals: 0.9 for Bahardar and 0.8 for Sheger Ketema. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 78% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Sheger Ketema to win at 3.45 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 50% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Bahardar 1–1 Sheger Ketema. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahardar39%fair 2.60 · @2.40
Draw29%fair 3.43 · @2.40
Sheger Ketema32%fair 3.09 · @3.45
1.63Expected goals
0.87Bahardar xG
0.76Sheger Ketema xG
40%Both score
22%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–020%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–26%
From our goals model: Bahardar 0.9 – 0.8 Sheger Ketema expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahardar to win✗
39%
2.60
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✓
71%
1.41
1.42
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.73
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
27%
3.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.87
–
Form
Bahardar – last 6
DWDWDL
15 Apr
@ Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
10 Apr
vs Adama Kenema
2–1
W
3 Apr
@ Mebrat Hayl
0–0
D
13 Mar
@ Kedus Giorgis
2–0
W
9 Mar
vs Negelle Arsi
0–0
D
4 Mar
@ Ethiopia Bunna
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sheger Ketema – last 6
DDLWWD
13 Apr
vs Negelle Arsi
1–1
D
8 Apr
@ Ethiopia Bunna
1–1
D
3 Apr
vs Arba Minch Kenema
1–2
L
13 Mar
@ Hadiya Hosaena
2–0
W
8 Mar
vs Kedus Giorgis
1–0
W
3 Mar
vs Ethiopian Medhin
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahardar and Sheger Ketema.
What is the prediction for Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema?
On our numbers Bahardar have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Sheger Ketema 32%.
How many goals will there be in Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema?
We expect about 1.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 22% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema?
Our predicted score is Bahardar 1–1 Sheger Ketema, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.6 goals in total.
When is Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema?
Bahardar vs Sheger Ketema (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 20 April 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Suhul Shire0