Value bet: Adama Kenema to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNegelle Arsi to win ✓41% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 6.01
Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Adama Kenema take on Negelle Arsi on Sunday 5 April, kicking off at 13:00 (WAT). Adama Kenema are 10th with 6 points from 5 games (in the bottom half), while Negelle Arsi sit 1st on 11 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Adama Kenema's last 4: LDDW Most recently they lost to Arba Minch Kenema 0–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Negelle Arsi's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Mebrat Hayl 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Adama Kenema arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.8 for Adama Kenema and 0.9 for Negelle Arsi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Adama Kenema 33%, draw 26%, Negelle Arsi 41%.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Adama Kenema to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Adama Kenema 0–0 Negelle Arsi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Adama Kenema33%fair 3.02 · @3.30
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.50
Negelle Arsi41%fair 2.43 · @2.30
1.73Expected goals
0.79Adama Kenema xG
0.94Negelle Arsi xG
47%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–018%
0–117%
1–014%
1–113%
0–28%
1–26%
From our goals model: Adama Kenema 0.8 – 0.9 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Negelle Arsi to win✓
41%
2.43
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
3.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
17%
6.01
–
Form
Adama Kenema – last 4
LDDW
10 Mar
vs Arba Minch Kenema
0–2
L
5 Mar
@ Hadiya Hosaena
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Sheger Ketema
3–3
D
21 Feb
@ Ethiopian Medhin
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Negelle Arsi – last 5
LDDLD
15 Mar
vs Mebrat Hayl
0–2
L
9 Mar
@ Bahardar
0–0
D
3 Mar
@ Kedus Giorgis
0–0
D
26 Feb
vs Ethiopia Bunna
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Arba Minch Kenema
1–1
D
0.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Adama Kenema and Negelle Arsi.
What is the prediction for Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Adama Kenema have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Negelle Arsi 41%.
How many goals will there be in Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Adama Kenema 0–0 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi?
Adama Kenema vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
