Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 2.86 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultSão Bernardo to win ✗38% · @2.86
Double chanceEither team to win ✗72% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.81
São Bernardo vs Ceara preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Brasil sees São Bernardo take on Ceara on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Form guide
São Bernardo's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Joinville 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ceara's last 4: WWWW Most recently they beat Maranhão 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ceara arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for São Bernardo and 1.0 for Ceara. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 41%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: São Bernardo 38%, draw 28%, Ceara 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.85.
Value angle: São Bernardo to win at 2.86 – 38% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
São Bernardo38%fair 2.61 · @2.86
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @3.00
Ceara34%fair 2.94 · @2.45
2.30Expected goals
1.27São Bernardo xG
1.02Ceara xG
55%Both score
41%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: São Bernardo 1.3 – 1.0 Ceara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
São Bernardo to win✗
38%
2.61
2.86 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
72%
1.38
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.51
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT São Bernardo / FT São Bernardo✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.81
–
Form
São Bernardo – last 3
WWL
10 Mar
@ Joinville
1–0
W
26 Feb
vs Atlético Alagoinhas
2–0
W
16 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Ceara – last 4
WWWW
12 Mar
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
27 Feb
vs Primavera SP
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Floresta
4–0
W
15 Feb
@ Floresta
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between São Bernardo and Ceara.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Ceara?
On our numbers São Bernardo have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Ceara 34%.
How many goals will there be in São Bernardo vs Ceara?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for São Bernardo vs Ceara?
Our predicted score is São Bernardo 1–1 Ceara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is São Bernardo vs Ceara?
São Bernardo vs Ceara (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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