Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 56% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortaleza EC to win ✓52% · @1.82
Double chanceFortaleza EC or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 9.22
Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC preview and prediction
The match
The Copa Do Brasil sees Nova Iguaçu take on Fortaleza EC on Tuesday 17 March, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Form guide
Nova Iguaçu's last 4: WDDL Most recently they beat Castanhal 4–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Nova Iguaçu and 1.4 for Fortaleza EC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nova Iguaçu 21%, draw 28%, Fortaleza EC 52%.
Safer route: Fortaleza EC or draw (79%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 56% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Fortaleza EC or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Nova Iguaçu 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nova Iguaçu21%fair 4.78 · @4.33
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @3.25
Fortaleza EC52%fair 1.94 · @1.82
2.58Expected goals
1.15Nova Iguaçu xG
1.43Fortaleza EC xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Nova Iguaçu 1.1 – 1.4 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza EC to win✓
52%
1.94
1.82
Double chance
Fortaleza EC or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.44
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortaleza EC / FT Fortaleza EC✓
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
9.22
–
Form
Nova Iguaçu – last 4
WDDL
12 Mar
@ Castanhal
4–0
W
26 Feb
vs Portuguesa RJ
1–1
D
24 Feb
@ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs CFRJ Maricá
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 2
WW
11 Mar
@ Manauara
1–0
W
25 Feb
vs Maguary PE
4–3
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nova Iguaçu and Fortaleza EC.
What is the prediction for Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Fortaleza EC or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Nova Iguaçu have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Fortaleza EC 52%.
How many goals will there be in Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Nova Iguaçu 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC?
Nova Iguaçu vs Fortaleza EC (Copa Do Brasil) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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