Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 54% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultJuventud to win ✗41% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.96
Cerro vs Juventud preview and prediction
The match
Juventud travel to Estadio Luis Troccoli in the Primera División Apertura on Wednesday 25 March (21:00 WAT) to face Cerro. Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Juventud sit 8th on 18 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to Penarol 1–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Juventud's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Albion FC 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Cerro and 1.2 for Juventud. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 33%, draw 26%, Juventud 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 54% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Cerro 1–1 Juventud. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro33%fair 2.99 · @2.88
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.90
Juventud41%fair 2.45 · @2.50
2.26Expected goals
1.06Cerro xG
1.21Juventud xG
54%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.1 – 1.2 Juventud expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Juventud to win✗
41%
2.45
2.50
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Juventud / FT Juventud✗
22%
4.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.96
–
Form
Cerro – last 5
LLDDL
21 Mar
@ Penarol
1–3
L
8 Mar
@ Racing Montevideo
0–1
L
28 Feb
vs Boston River
1–1
D
20 Feb
vs Liverpool Montevideo
1–1
D
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.6Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Juventud – last 6
LLLDLW
22 Mar
vs Albion FC
0–1
L
16 Mar
@ Danubio
1–4
L
13 Mar
@ Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
6 Mar
vs Independiente Medellin
1–1
D
3 Mar
@ Deportivo Maldonado
1–2
L
26 Feb
@ Club Guarani
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Juventud.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Cerro vs Juventud?
On our numbers Cerro have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Juventud 41%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Juventud?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Juventud?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Juventud, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Juventud?
Cerro vs Juventud (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Wednesday 25 March 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
