Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Progreso to win @ 2.72 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultProgreso to win40% · @2.72
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.87
Progreso vs Boston River preview and prediction
The match
Boston River travel to Parque Abraham Paladino in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 22 March (20:00 WAT) to face Progreso. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Boston River sit 11th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Boston River's last 4: LWDL Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Progreso and 1.1 for Boston River. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Progreso 40%, draw 24%, Boston River 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Progreso to win at 2.72 – 40% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Boston River. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso40%fair 2.52 · @2.72
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.10
Boston River36%fair 2.79 · @2.52
2.19Expected goals
1.13Progreso xG
1.06Boston River xG
52%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–112%
0–011%
2–18%
2–07%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.1 Boston River expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win
40%
2.52
2.72 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
80%
1.25
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso
21%
4.74
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.87
–
Form
Progreso – last 1
L
22 Feb
vs Club Nacional
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Boston River – last 4
LWDL
10 Mar
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
15 Feb
@ Danubio
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Boston River.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Boston River?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Progreso vs Boston River?
On our numbers Progreso have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Boston River 36%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Boston River?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Boston River?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Boston River, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Boston River?
Progreso vs Boston River (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
