The FA Cup sees Southampton take on Arsenal on Saturday 4 April, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Southampton's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Norwich 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arsenal's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Manchester City 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.0 for Southampton and 2.4 for Arsenal. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Southampton 14%, draw 17%, Arsenal 68%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.73.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Southampton 1–2 Arsenal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Southampton14%fair 6.90 · @7.75
Draw17%fair 5.72 · @5.10
Arsenal68%fair 1.47 · @1.34
3.37Expected goals
1.00Southampton xG
2.37Arsenal xG
60%Both score
64%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–210%
1–18%
0–18%
1–38%
0–38%
From our goals model: Southampton 1.0 – 2.4 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win
68%
1.47
1.34
Double chance
Arsenal or draw
86%
1.17
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.67
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
83%
1.20
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
64%
1.56
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
10%
10.36
–
Form
Southampton – last 5
WDWWD
18 Mar
vs Norwich
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ West Brom
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Fulham
1–0
W
24 Feb
vs QPR
5–0
W
21 Feb
vs Charlton
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
LWDWWW
22 Mar
vs Manchester City
0–2
L
17 Mar
vs Bayer Leverkusen
2–0
W
11 Mar
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Mansfield Town
2–1
W
4 Mar
@ Brighton
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Arsenal.
What is the prediction for Southampton vs Arsenal?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Southampton vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Southampton have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Arsenal 68%.
How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Arsenal?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Southampton 1–2 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Southampton vs Arsenal?
Southampton vs Arsenal (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Manchester City4
Liverpool0
Chelsea
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