Manchester City vs Liverpool prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Manchester City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Manchester City to win @ 1.75 – our chance 66% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultManchester City to win ✓66% · @1.75
Double chanceManchester City or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗64% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.55
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.49
Manchester City vs Liverpool preview and prediction
The match
Manchester City host Liverpool in the FA Cup on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 12:45 (WAT) at Etihad Stadium.
Form guide
Manchester City's last 4: WLLD Most recently they beat Arsenal 2–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Liverpool's last 5: WDLWL Most recently they beat Galatasaray 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Liverpool arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 2.7 for Manchester City and 1.3 for Liverpool. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 64%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Manchester City 66%, draw 20%, Liverpool 14%.
Safer route: Manchester City or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (64%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Manchester City to win at 1.75 – 66% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Manchester City or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Manchester City 2–1 Liverpool. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Manchester City66%fair 1.51 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.95
Liverpool14%fair 7.02 · @4.10
3.99Expected goals
2.71Manchester City xG
1.28Liverpool xG
64%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–16%
3–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Manchester City 2.7 – 1.3 Liverpool expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✓
66%
1.51
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Manchester City or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.55 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.57
Half-time result
Manchester City ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City✓
46%
2.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.49
–
Form
Manchester City – last 4
WLLD
22 Mar
@ Arsenal
2–0
W
17 Mar
vs Real Madrid
1–2
L
11 Mar
@ Real Madrid
0–3
L
4 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Liverpool – last 6
WDLWLW
18 Mar
vs Galatasaray
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Tottenham
1–1
D
10 Mar
@ Galatasaray
0–1
L
6 Mar
@ Wolves
3–1
W
3 Mar
@ Wolves
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Nottingham Forest
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Manchester City and Liverpool.
What is the prediction for Manchester City vs Liverpool?
Our pick is Manchester City or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Manchester City vs Liverpool?
On our numbers Manchester City have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Liverpool 14%.
How many goals will there be in Manchester City vs Liverpool?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Manchester City vs Liverpool?
Our predicted score is Manchester City 2–1 Liverpool, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Manchester City vs Liverpool?
Manchester City vs Liverpool (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 12:45 (West Africa Time) at Etihad Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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