Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeevon PPK to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.87
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.10
Mārupe vs Leevon PPK preview and prediction
The match
Mārupe host Leevon PPK in the 1. Liga on Saturday 8 August, with kick-off at 11:00 (WAT). Mārupe are 7th with 34 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Leevon PPK sit 4th on 54 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mārupe's last 5: LWLLW Most recently they lost to Skanste 2–4 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Leevon PPK's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Rēzekne FA 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Leevon PPK arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 1.1 for Mārupe and 2.1 for Leevon PPK. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Leevon PPK to win – a 65% chance at odds of 1.70, above our fair price of 1.53, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mārupe 1–2 Leevon PPK. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mārupe23%fair 4.33 · @3.60
Draw12%fair 8.61 · @4.00
Leevon PPK65%fair 1.53 · @1.70
3.18Expected goals
1.08Mārupe xG
2.10Leevon PPK xG
53%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–29%
0–19%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: Mārupe 1.1 – 2.1 Leevon PPK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leevon PPK to win✓
65%
1.53
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Leevon PPK ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leevon PPK / FT Leevon PPK✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.10
–
Form
Mārupe – last 6
LWLLWL
1 Aug
@ Skanste
2–4
L
25 Jul
@ Rēzekne FA
2–1
W
18 Jul
vs Metta LU
0–4
L
12 Jul
vs Grobiņa
0–1
L
4 Jul
vs Smiltene
2–1
W
27 Jun
@ Riga Mariners
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Leevon PPK – last 6
WWWLLL
1 Aug
vs Rēzekne FA
2–1
W
25 Jul
vs Skanste
2–1
W
18 Jul
vs Riga Mariners
2–1
W
10 Jul
vs Riga
2–3
L
5 Jul
@ Valmiera BSS
1–4
L
28 Jun
vs Metta LU
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mārupe and Leevon PPK.
Our pick is Leevon PPK to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Mārupe vs Leevon PPK?
On our numbers Mārupe have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Leevon PPK 65%.
How many goals will there be in Mārupe vs Leevon PPK?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mārupe vs Leevon PPK?
Our predicted score is Mārupe 1–2 Leevon PPK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Mārupe vs Leevon PPK?
Mārupe vs Leevon PPK (1. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
