Portugal travel to face Wales in the UEFA Nations League on Tuesday 17 November (20:45 WAT). Wales are 3rd with 3 points from 4 games, while Portugal sit 1st on 12 points.
Form guide
Wales's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Denmark 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Portugal's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Norway 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Portugal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 24 September 2026, finished Portugal 1–0 Wales.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Wales and 1.8 for Portugal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Wales 17%, draw 20%, Portugal 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.68.
Prediction
Our prediction: Under 3.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.63, above our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Wales 0–1 Portugal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Wales17%fair 5.93 · @8.15
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @5.59
Portugal63%fair 1.58 · @1.28
2.66Expected goals
0.83Wales xG
1.82Portugal xG
57%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–37%
0–07%
From our goals model: Wales 0.8 – 1.8 Portugal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Wales
Portugal
Attack vs UEFA Nations League average
-35%
+33%
Goals conceded vs average
-8%
-9%
Our expected goals here
0.72
1.50
Our own ratings from every UEFA Nations League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.63.
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
On our numbers Wales have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Portugal 63%.
How many goals will there be in Wales vs Portugal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Wales vs Portugal?
Our predicted score is Wales 0–1 Portugal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Wales vs Portugal?
Wales vs Portugal (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Tuesday 17 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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