Both teams scoreNot both teams to score62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–018% · fair 5.56
Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra preview and prediction
The match
The Iraqi League sees Erbil take on Al Minaa Basra on Friday 13 March, kicking off at 21:15 (WAT) at Franso Hariri Stadium. Erbil are 7th with 20 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Al Minaa Basra sit 9th on 17 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al Minaa Basra's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Al Najaf 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Erbil and 0.6 for Al Minaa Basra. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Erbil 62%, draw 23%, Al Minaa Basra 16%.
Safer route: Erbil or draw (84%) at 1.17.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Erbil to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.80, above our fair price of 1.62, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Erbil 1–0 Al Minaa Basra. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Erbil62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
Draw23%fair 4.39 · @3.10
Al Minaa Basra16%fair 6.43 · @4.20
2.16Expected goals
1.55Erbil xG
0.60Al Minaa Basra xG
38%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Erbil 1.6 – 0.6 Al Minaa Basra expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Erbil to win
62%
1.62
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Erbil or draw
84%
1.18
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.58
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
83%
1.21
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Erbil / FT Erbil
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
18%
5.56
–
Form
Erbil – last 1
L
14 Feb
vs Zakho
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Al Minaa Basra – last 3
WWL
6 Mar
@ Al Najaf
1–0
W
1 Mar
vs Al-Karma
2–0
W
13 Feb
vs Gharraf
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Erbil and Al Minaa Basra.
What is the prediction for Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our pick is Erbil to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra?
On our numbers Erbil have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Al Minaa Basra 16%.
How many goals will there be in Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra?
Our predicted score is Erbil 1–0 Al Minaa Basra, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra?
Erbil vs Al Minaa Basra (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time) at Franso Hariri Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al Najaf1