Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.40Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 2.90 – our chance 58% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +69%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗58% · @2.90
Double chanceM'saken or draw ✓79% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗10% · fair 9.99
M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane preview and prediction
The match
US Ben Guerdane travel to face M'saken in the Cup on Sunday 22 March (13:30 WAT).
Form guide
M'saken's last 3: WLL Most recently they beat EM Mahdia 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
US Ben Guerdane's last 3: LLL Most recently they lost to Club Africain 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
M'saken arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.7 for M'saken and 1.7 for US Ben Guerdane. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: M'saken 21%, draw 58%, US Ben Guerdane 21%.
Safer route: M'saken or draw (79%) at 1.40.
Value angle: Draw at 2.90 – 58% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was M'saken or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.40, above our fair price of 1.26, so there is value in it. Predicted score: M'saken 1–1 US Ben Guerdane. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
M'saken21%fair 4.81 · @2.60
Draw58%fair 1.71 · @2.90
US Ben Guerdane21%fair 4.81 · @2.60
3.31Expected goals
1.65M'saken xG
1.65US Ben Guerdane xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: M'saken 1.7 – 1.7 US Ben Guerdane expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
58%
1.71
2.90 ▲
Double chance
M'saken or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT M'saken / FT M'saken✓
23%
4.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
10%
9.99
–
Form
M'saken – last 3
WLL
27 Feb
vs EM Mahdia
2–0
W
22 Feb
@ CS Hammam-Lif
0–3
L
16 Feb
vs Kerkennah
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
US Ben Guerdane – last 3
LLL
8 Mar
vs Club Africain
0–1
L
27 Feb
@ Jeunesse Sportive Omrane
1–2
L
15 Feb
vs CS Sfaxien
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between M'saken and US Ben Guerdane.
What is the prediction for M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our pick is M'saken or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane?
On our numbers M'saken have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 58% and US Ben Guerdane 21%.
How many goals will there be in M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane?
Our predicted score is M'saken 1–1 US Ben Guerdane, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane?
M'saken vs US Ben Guerdane (Cup) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cup · Tunisia
CA Bizertin1
AS Marsa1
Jendouba Sport2
Sfax Railways0
JS Kairouanaise0
CS Sfaxien0
US Monastirienne1
Club Africain0
AS Soliman2
Stade Tunisien2
ES Zarzis0
Korba0