Good pick · fair odds 1.67 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Al Karkh to win @ 3.20 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNaft to win ✗43% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Naft vs Al Karkh preview and prediction
The match
Naft host Al Karkh in the Iraqi League on Friday 6 March, with kick-off at 21:15 (WAT). Naft are 3rd with 25 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Al Karkh sit 16th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Naft and 1.1 for Al Karkh. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Naft 43%, draw 22%, Al Karkh 35%.
Value angle: Al Karkh to win at 3.20 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 60% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Naft 1–1 Al Karkh. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft43%fair 2.33 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Al Karkh35%fair 2.87 · @3.20
2.29Expected goals
1.23Naft xG
1.06Al Karkh xG
44%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Naft 1.2 – 1.1 Al Karkh expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Naft to win✗
43%
2.33
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Naft / FT Naft✗
23%
4.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.04
–
Form
Naft – last 2
WL
1 Mar
@ Baghdad
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Zakho
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Al Karkh – last 1
L
13 Feb
vs Al Talaba
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft and Al Karkh.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Naft vs Al Karkh?
On our numbers Naft have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Al Karkh 35%.
How many goals will there be in Naft vs Al Karkh?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft vs Al Karkh?
Our predicted score is Naft 1–1 Al Karkh, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Naft vs Al Karkh?
Naft vs Al Karkh (Iraqi League) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 21:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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