Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.59 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.59Odds
1
Value bet: Kaluga to win @ 3.14 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRodina Moskva II to win ✗44% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.26
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.16
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.92
Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II preview and prediction
The match
The Second League A Fall Season Gold sees Kaluga take on Rodina Moskva II on Wednesday 8 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Orbita stadium. Kaluga are 10th with 11 points from 17 games (in the bottom three), while Rodina Moskva II sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Kaluga's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Leningradets 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Rodina Moskva II's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Mashuk-KMV 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for Kaluga and 1.1 for Rodina Moskva II. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 62% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Kaluga 34%, draw 22%, Rodina Moskva II 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Kaluga to win at 3.14 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.59. Predicted score: Kaluga 0–1 Rodina Moskva II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Kaluga34%fair 2.96 · @3.14
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.20
Rodina Moskva II44%fair 2.26 · @2.08
2.06Expected goals
0.93Kaluga xG
1.13Rodina Moskva II xG
52%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–013%
1–012%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Kaluga 0.9 – 1.1 Rodina Moskva II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rodina Moskva II to win✗
44%
2.26
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.26
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.61
1.59
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.16
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rodina Moskva II / FT Rodina Moskva II✗
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.92
–
Form
Kaluga – last 6
LLLWLD
4 Apr
@ Leningradets
0–1
L
29 Mar
vs Torpedo Miass
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Tekstilshchik
1–4
L
15 Mar
@ Volgar Astrakhan
3–0
W
8 Mar
@ Veles
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Mashuk-KMV
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Rodina Moskva II – last 6
DLLDDW
4 Apr
vs Mashuk-KMV
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Novosibirsk
0–1
L
22 Mar
vs Irtysh Omsk
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Veles
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Leningradets
0–0
D
1 Mar
vs Torpedo Miass
2–1
W
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Kaluga and Rodina Moskva II.
What is the prediction for Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.59.
Who will win Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II?
On our numbers Kaluga have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Rodina Moskva II 44%.
How many goals will there be in Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II?
Our predicted score is Kaluga 0–1 Rodina Moskva II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II?
Kaluga vs Rodina Moskva II (Second League A Fall Season Gold) kicks off on Wednesday 8 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Orbita stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Irtysh Omsk1
Veles2
Tekstilshchik2
Torpedo Miass3
Leningradets0