Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Caxias to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSanta Cruz to win ✓39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.21
Santa Cruz vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C sees Santa Cruz take on Caxias on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 23:30 (WAT). Santa Cruz are 2nd with 11 points from 6 games, while Caxias sit 14th on 25 points. A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Santa Cruz's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Maranhão 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Caxias's last 5: LWLDW Most recently they lost to Figueirense 1–2 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Santa Cruz and 1.0 for Caxias. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Santa Cruz 39%, draw 26%, Caxias 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Caxias to win at 3.10 – 35% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Santa Cruz 1–0 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santa Cruz39%fair 2.54 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.88
Caxias35%fair 2.87 · @3.10
2.03Expected goals
1.06Santa Cruz xG
0.97Caxias xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–114%
0–013%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Santa Cruz 1.1 – 1.0 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Cruz to win✓
39%
2.54
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.56
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
21%
4.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.21
–
Form
Santa Cruz – last 6
LDLWWW
15 Aug
vs Maranhão
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Botafogo PB
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Figueirense
0–1
L
12 Jul
@ Barra
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Ituano
1–0
W
27 Jun
@ Paysandu
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
LWLDWD
16 Aug
vs Figueirense
1–2
L
9 Aug
@ AO Itabaiana
2–0
W
26 Jul
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs Floresta
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santa Cruz and Caxias.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
On our numbers Santa Cruz have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Caxias 35%.
How many goals will there be in Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is Santa Cruz 1–0 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Santa Cruz vs Caxias?
Santa Cruz vs Caxias (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
