Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultItuano to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.36
Ituano vs Paysandu preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C sees Ituano take on Paysandu on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT). Ituano are 15th with 22 points from 19 games, while Paysandu sit 4th on 5 points. A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ituano's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Volta Redonda 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Paysandu's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Ferroviária 0–4 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Ituano and 1.2 for Paysandu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 59%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ituano 45%, draw 22%, Paysandu 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Paysandu to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Ituano 1–1 Paysandu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ituano45%fair 2.23 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.25
Paysandu33%fair 2.99 · @3.30
2.58Expected goals
1.41Ituano xG
1.17Paysandu xG
59%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Ituano 1.4 – 1.2 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ituano to win✗
45%
2.23
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.70
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ituano / FT Ituano✗
25%
4.01
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.36
–
Form
Ituano – last 6
LWLLLD
15 Aug
@ Volta Redonda
0–1
L
8 Aug
vs Barra
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Brusque
0–1
L
12 Jul
vs Ferroviária
1–3
L
4 Jul
@ Santa Cruz
0–1
L
29 Jun
vs Maranhão
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 6
LWLWLL
18 Aug
@ Ferroviária
0–4
L
11 Aug
vs Confiança
2–1
W
27 Jul
@ Amazonas
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Guarani Campinas
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Santa Cruz
1–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ituano and Paysandu.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Ituano vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Ituano have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Paysandu 33%.
How many goals will there be in Ituano vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ituano vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Ituano 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Ituano vs Paysandu?
Ituano vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
