Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.30 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.08
Ferroviária vs Paysandu preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu travel to Arena Fonte Luminosa in the Serie C on Tuesday 18 August (00:00 WAT) to face Ferroviária. Ferroviária are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Paysandu sit 4th on 5 points.
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 5: DDWLL Most recently they drew with Figueirense 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Paysandu's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Confiança 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Ferroviária and 1.2 for Paysandu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Paysandu to win at 3.30 – 35% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–1 Paysandu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária41%fair 2.44 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Paysandu35%fair 2.86 · @3.30
2.46Expected goals
1.30Ferroviária xG
1.17Paysandu xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.3 – 1.2 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✓
41%
2.44
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✓
23%
4.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.08
–
Form
Ferroviária – last 6
DDWLLW
8 Aug
@ Figueirense
2–2
D
25 Jul
vs Maranhão
0–0
D
12 Jul
@ Ituano
3–1
W
5 Jul
vs Caxias
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Paysandu – last 6
WLWLLW
11 Aug
vs Confiança
2–1
W
27 Jul
@ Amazonas
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Guarani Campinas
3–2
W
5 Jul
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–1
L
27 Jun
vs Santa Cruz
1–3
L
21 Jun
@ Maranhão
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Paysandu.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paysandu 35%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Paysandu?
Ferroviária vs Paysandu (Serie C) kicks off on Tuesday 18 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
