Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultAO Itabaiana to win ✗41% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.10
AO Itabaiana vs Caxias preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C sees AO Itabaiana take on Caxias on Sunday 9 August, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca. AO Itabaiana are 19th with 17 points from 19 games (in the bottom three), while Caxias sit 14th on 25 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
AO Itabaiana's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Confiança 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Caxias's last 5: LDWDD Most recently they lost to Botafogo PB 1–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
AO Itabaiana arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for AO Itabaiana and 1.0 for Caxias. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AO Itabaiana 41%, draw 26%, Caxias 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: AO Itabaiana 1–0 Caxias. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AO Itabaiana41%fair 2.47 · @2.55
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @2.95
Caxias34%fair 2.95 · @2.75
2.04Expected goals
1.08AO Itabaiana xG
0.96Caxias xG
52%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: AO Itabaiana 1.1 – 1.0 Caxias expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AO Itabaiana to win✗
41%
2.47
2.55
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AO Itabaiana / FT AO Itabaiana✗
21%
4.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.10
–
Form
AO Itabaiana – last 6
DWWWLD
25 Jul
@ Confiança
1–1
D
13 Jul
vs Brusque
1–0
W
7 Jul
@ Amazonas
2–0
W
27 Jun
vs Ferroviária
1–0
W
20 Jun
@ Anápolis
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Ituano
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Caxias – last 6
LDWDDL
26 Jul
vs Botafogo PB
1–2
L
11 Jul
vs Floresta
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ Ferroviária
1–0
W
30 Jun
vs Anápolis
1–1
D
21 Jun
vs Maringá
1–1
D
13 Jun
@ Guarani Campinas
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AO Itabaiana and Caxias.
What is the prediction for AO Itabaiana vs Caxias?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win AO Itabaiana vs Caxias?
On our numbers AO Itabaiana have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Caxias 34%.
How many goals will there be in AO Itabaiana vs Caxias?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AO Itabaiana vs Caxias?
Our predicted score is AO Itabaiana 1–0 Caxias, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is AO Itabaiana vs Caxias?
AO Itabaiana vs Caxias (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
