Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.77 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.77Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✗63% · @1.77
Double chanceFerroviária or draw ✓85% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.14
Ferroviária vs Maranhão preview and prediction
The match
Maranhão travel to Arena Fonte Luminosa in the Serie C on Saturday 25 July (21:00 WAT) to face Ferroviária. Ferroviária are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Maranhão sit 12th on 27 points. A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ferroviária's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Ituano 3–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Maranhão's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Ypiranga-RS 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferroviária arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Ferroviária and 0.5 for Maranhão. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Ferroviária to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.77, above our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ferroviária 1–0 Maranhão. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferroviária63%fair 1.59 · @1.77
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.40
Maranhão15%fair 6.85 · @4.10
2.05Expected goals
1.51Ferroviária xG
0.54Maranhão xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Ferroviária 1.5 – 0.5 Maranhão expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
63%
1.59
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Ferroviária or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.98
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.14
–
Form
Ferroviária – last 6
WLLWWD
12 Jul
@ Ituano
3–1
W
5 Jul
vs Caxias
0–1
L
27 Jun
@ AO Itabaiana
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
16 Jun
vs Barra
1–0
W
31 May
@ Santa Cruz
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Maranhão – last 6
WLDLDD
12 Jul
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
4 Jul
vs Inter De Limeira
0–1
L
29 Jun
@ Ituano
0–0
D
21 Jun
vs Paysandu
0–1
L
15 Jun
@ Maringá
0–0
D
31 May
@ Anápolis
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferroviária and Maranhão.
What is the prediction for Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Our pick is Ferroviária to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.77.
Who will win Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
On our numbers Ferroviária have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Maranhão 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Our predicted score is Ferroviária 1–0 Maranhão, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Ferroviária vs Maranhão?
Ferroviária vs Maranhão (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Luminosa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
