Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 2.60 – our chance 46% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerroviária to win ✗46% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.96
AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária preview and prediction
The match
The Serie C sees AO Itabaiana take on Ferroviária on Saturday 27 June, kicking off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca. AO Itabaiana are 19th with 17 points from 19 games, while Ferroviária sit 1st on 11 points.
Form guide
AO Itabaiana's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Anápolis 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Ferroviária's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Inter De Limeira 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferroviária arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 0.9 for AO Itabaiana and 1.2 for Ferroviária. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AO Itabaiana 30%, draw 24%, Ferroviária 46%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 2.60 – 46% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: AO Itabaiana 0–1 Ferroviária. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AO Itabaiana30%fair 3.32 · @2.70
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @2.90
Ferroviária46%fair 2.17 · @2.60
2.15Expected goals
0.92AO Itabaiana xG
1.23Ferroviária xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–012%
1–011%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: AO Itabaiana 0.9 – 1.2 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferroviária to win✗
46%
2.17
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.95
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.17
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferroviária / FT Ferroviária✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.96
–
Form
AO Itabaiana – last 6
LDLDWD
20 Jun
@ Anápolis
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Ituano
2–2
D
30 May
vs Volta Redonda
0–1
L
24 May
@ Inter De Limeira
0–0
D
16 May
@ Figueirense
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Piauí
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Ferroviária – last 6
WWDWWL
21 Jun
vs Inter De Limeira
2–0
W
16 Jun
vs Barra
1–0
W
31 May
@ Santa Cruz
1–1
D
24 May
@ Amazonas
2–1
W
17 May
vs Brusque
1–0
W
13 May
vs Juventus
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AO Itabaiana and Ferroviária.
What is the prediction for AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers AO Itabaiana have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ferroviária 46%.
How many goals will there be in AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is AO Itabaiana 0–1 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária?
AO Itabaiana vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 27 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Etelvino Mendonca.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
