Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.85Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCaxias to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceCaxias or draw ✓87% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.04
Caxias vs Ituano preview and prediction
The match
Ituano travel to Estadio Francisco Stedile in the Serie C on Saturday 30 May (23:30 WAT) to face Caxias. Caxias are 14th with 25 points from 19 games (in the bottom half), while Ituano sit 15th on 22 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Caxias's last 5: DWDWW Most recently they drew with Maranhão 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ituano's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Botafogo PB 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Caxias and 0.5 for Ituano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Caxias 64%, draw 22%, Ituano 13%.
Safer route: Caxias or draw (87%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: no (53%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Caxias to win – a 64% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Caxias 1–0 Ituano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Caxias64%fair 1.55 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @2.95
Ituano13%fair 7.47 · @4.40
2.05Expected goals
1.55Caxias xG
0.51Ituano xG
47%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
2–015%
0–013%
1–110%
3–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Caxias 1.5 – 0.5 Ituano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caxias to win✓
64%
1.55
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Caxias or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.14
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.55
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caxias / FT Caxias✗
39%
2.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.04
–
Form
Caxias – last 6
DWDWWL
23 May
@ Maranhão
0–0
D
17 May
vs Paysandu
2–0
W
7 May
@ São Bernardo
1–1
D
1 May
vs Volta Redonda
2–0
W
28 Apr
vs Ypiranga-RS
2–1
W
16 Apr
@ Avai
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Ituano – last 6
WWWLDL
26 May
vs Botafogo PB
1–0
W
17 May
@ Guarani Campinas
3–1
W
10 May
vs Confiança
1–0
W
5 May
@ Ypiranga-RS
0–2
L
30 Apr
@ Ferroviária
1–1
D
23 Apr
vs Ferroviária
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Caxias and Ituano.
Our pick is Caxias to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Caxias vs Ituano?
On our numbers Caxias have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Ituano 13%.
How many goals will there be in Caxias vs Ituano?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Caxias vs Ituano?
Our predicted score is Caxias 1–0 Ituano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Caxias vs Ituano?
Caxias vs Ituano (Serie C) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Francisco Stedile.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
