Value bet: Ural to win @ 1.69 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultUral to win ✓65% · @1.69
Double chanceUral or draw ✓84% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.92
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.58
Ural vs Arsenal Tula preview and prediction
The match
The First League sees Ural take on Arsenal Tula on Sunday 15 March, kicking off at 09:30 (WAT) at Yekaterinburg Arena. Ural are 2nd with 34 points from 17 games (in the top four), while Arsenal Tula sit 12th on 19 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arsenal Tula's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Volga Ulyanovsk 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.8 for Ural and 0.7 for Arsenal Tula. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ural 65%, draw 19%, Arsenal Tula 16%.
Safer route: Ural or draw (84%) at 1.16.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.92.
Value angle: Ural to win at 1.69 – 65% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Ural 1–0 Arsenal Tula. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ural65%fair 1.54 · @1.69
Draw19%fair 5.27 · @3.64
Arsenal Tula16%fair 6.18 · @4.70
2.45Expected goals
1.75Ural xG
0.69Arsenal Tula xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Ural 1.8 – 0.7 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ural to win✓
65%
1.54
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Ural or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.16
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.92
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.76
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.24
Half-time result
Ural ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ural / FT Ural✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.58
–
Form
Ural – last 2
DL
9 Mar
@ Rotor Volgograd
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Fakel
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 3
LLD
9 Mar
vs Volga Ulyanovsk
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs Lokomotiv
1–2
L
27 Feb
@ KAMAZ
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ural and Arsenal Tula.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Ural have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arsenal Tula 16%.
How many goals will there be in Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Ural 1–0 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Ural vs Arsenal Tula?
Ural vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 09:30 (West Africa Time) at Yekaterinburg Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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