Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 53% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultML Vitebsk to win ✓72% · @1.30
Double chanceML Vitebsk or draw ✓90% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–2 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk preview and prediction
The match
Arsenal host ML Vitebsk in the Premier League on Sunday 17 May, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Haradski Stadium. Arsenal are 12th with 27 points from 28 games (in the bottom half), while ML Vitebsk sit 1st on 62 points (top of the table). A gap of 35 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Arsenal's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Baranovichi 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
ML Vitebsk's last 5: LWLWW Most recently they lost to Dinamo Minsk 0–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 0.7 for Arsenal and 2.2 for ML Vitebsk. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 53% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 10%, draw 18%, ML Vitebsk 72%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 53% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was ML Vitebsk to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Arsenal 0–2 ML Vitebsk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal10%fair 10.21 · @9.50
Draw18%fair 5.54 · @4.20
ML Vitebsk72%fair 1.39 · @1.30
2.93Expected goals
0.70Arsenal xG
2.23ML Vitebsk xG
53%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–213%
0–112%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Arsenal 0.7 – 2.2 ML Vitebsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ML Vitebsk to win✓
72%
1.39
1.30
Double chance
ML Vitebsk or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
ML Vitebsk ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ML Vitebsk / FT ML Vitebsk✓
48%
2.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Arsenal – last 6
DDWWDL
8 May
@ Baranovichi
1–1
D
1 May
vs FC Isloch Minsk R.
2–2
D
20 Apr
vs Belshina
2–0
W
3 Apr
vs Naftan
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ FC Minsk
1–1
D
15 Mar
vs Slavia Mozyr
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
ML Vitebsk – last 5
LWLWW
29 Apr
@ Dinamo Minsk
0–1
L
19 Apr
@ Bate Borisov
2–1
W
15 Apr
vs Dinamo Minsk
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs Dinamo Brest
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Dinamo Brest
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
20%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and ML Vitebsk.
Our pick is ML Vitebsk to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 18% and ML Vitebsk 72%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 0–2 ML Vitebsk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk?
Arsenal vs ML Vitebsk (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Haradski Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
