Value bet: Bate Borisov to win @ 2.15 – our chance 49% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBate Borisov to win ✗49% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.08
Naftan vs Bate Borisov preview and prediction
The match
The Premier League sees Naftan take on Bate Borisov on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Atlant Stadium. Naftan are 16th with 17 points from 28 games (in the bottom three), while Bate Borisov sit 14th on 24 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Naftan's last 5: LLLDD Most recently they lost to FC Minsk 2–4 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Bate Borisov's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Slavia Mozyr 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bate Borisov arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.9 for Naftan and 1.3 for Bate Borisov. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 48%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Bate Borisov to win at 2.15 – 49% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Naftan 0–1 Bate Borisov. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naftan28%fair 3.57 · @3.20
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.00
Bate Borisov49%fair 2.02 · @2.15
2.25Expected goals
0.91Naftan xG
1.34Bate Borisov xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Naftan 0.9 – 1.3 Bate Borisov expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bate Borisov to win✗
49%
2.02
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.29
1.35
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bate Borisov / FT Bate Borisov✗
27%
3.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.08
–
Form
Naftan – last 6
LLLDDD
1 May
@ FC Minsk
2–4
L
10 Apr
vs FC Gomel
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Arsenal
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs FC Dnepr Mogilev
0–0
D
7 Mar
vs FC Vitebsk
1–1
D
18 Feb
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Bate Borisov – last 6
WLLWWD
29 Apr
vs Slavia Mozyr
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ FC Minsk
0–1
L
19 Apr
vs ML Vitebsk
1–2
L
15 Apr
@ Slavia Mozyr
1–0
W
5 Apr
vs Baranovichi
3–0
W
21 Mar
@ Neman
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naftan and Bate Borisov.
What is the prediction for Naftan vs Bate Borisov?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Naftan vs Bate Borisov?
On our numbers Naftan have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Bate Borisov 49%.
How many goals will there be in Naftan vs Bate Borisov?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naftan vs Bate Borisov?
Our predicted score is Naftan 0–1 Bate Borisov, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Naftan vs Bate Borisov?
Naftan vs Bate Borisov (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Atlant Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
