Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.82 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovorizontino to win ✓40% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.02
Novorizontino vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
Novorizontino host Santos in the Paulista A1 on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Novorizontino and 1.2 for Santos. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Novorizontino to win at 2.82 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Novorizontino 1–1 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novorizontino40%fair 2.49 · @2.82
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.10
Santos35%fair 2.89 · @2.56
2.62Expected goals
1.37Novorizontino xG
1.25Santos xG
52%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Novorizontino 1.4 – 1.2 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novorizontino to win✓
40%
2.49
2.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino✓
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.02
–
Form
Novorizontino – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Santos – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
7.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novorizontino and Santos.
What is the prediction for Novorizontino vs Santos?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Novorizontino vs Santos?
On our numbers Novorizontino have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Santos 35%.
How many goals will there be in Novorizontino vs Santos?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novorizontino vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Novorizontino 1–1 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Novorizontino vs Santos?
Novorizontino vs Santos (Paulista A1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A1 · Brazil · Estádio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Palmeiras4
Capivariano0