Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFluminense to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓11% · fair 8.90
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama host Fluminense in the Carioca 1 on Sunday 22 February, with kick-off at 22:00 (WAT) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.3 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 35%, draw 24%, Fluminense 41%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 1.82.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 3.25 – 35% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.26. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama35%fair 2.88 · @3.25
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.20
Fluminense41%fair 2.43 · @2.20
2.44Expected goals
1.15Vasco DA Gama xG
1.28Fluminense xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 1.2 – 1.3 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win✓
41%
2.43
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
1.82
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.26
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense✓
23%
4.39
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
11%
8.90
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama
No recent results on record.
Fluminense – last 1
W
16 Feb
vs Bangu
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.26.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fluminense 41%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fluminense (Carioca 1) kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Carioca 1 · Brazil · Estádio Nilton Santos
Boavista SC0
Botafogo2