Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë prediction & analysis
85%
Footrivo pick
Apolonia Fier or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: Apolonia Fier to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultApolonia Fier to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceApolonia Fier or draw ✗85% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.38
Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë preview and prediction
The match
The 1st Division sees Apolonia Fier take on Besa Kavajë on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu.
Form guide
Apolonia Fier's last 3: DLL Most recently they drew with Luftëtari 2–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Besa Kavajë's last 5: WLLWL Most recently they beat Luftëtari 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Besa Kavajë arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Apolonia Fier and 0.7 for Besa Kavajë. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 44%.
Value angle: Apolonia Fier to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Apolonia Fier or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Apolonia Fier 1–0 Besa Kavajë. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Apolonia Fier59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.25
Besa Kavajë15%fair 6.77 · @3.50
2.35Expected goals
1.65Apolonia Fier xG
0.70Besa Kavajë xG
44%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Apolonia Fier 1.6 – 0.7 Besa Kavajë expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Apolonia Fier to win✗
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Apolonia Fier or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Apolonia Fier / FT Apolonia Fier✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.38
–
Form
Apolonia Fier – last 3
DLL
18 Mar
@ Luftëtari
2–2
D
28 Feb
vs Pogradeci
1–2
L
22 Feb
@ Kastrioti Krujë
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Besa Kavajë – last 5
WLLWL
5 Apr
@ Luftëtari
3–2
W
22 Mar
vs Skenderbeu Korce
0–1
L
18 Mar
@ Laci
3–5
L
1 Mar
vs Burreli
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0–1
L
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Apolonia Fier and Besa Kavajë.
What is the prediction for Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë?
Our pick is Apolonia Fier or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë?
On our numbers Apolonia Fier have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Besa Kavajë 15%.
How many goals will there be in Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë?
Our predicted score is Apolonia Fier 1–0 Besa Kavajë, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë?
Apolonia Fier vs Besa Kavajë (1st Division) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadiumi Loni Papuciu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Luftëtari2
Laci2
Lushnja0