Value bet: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win @ 2.45 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFK Zalgiris Vilnius to win ✗44% · @2.45
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.73
Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius preview and prediction
The match
Suduva Marijampole host FK Zalgiris Vilnius in the A Lyga on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 12:15 (WAT) at Marijampole Football Arena. Suduva Marijampole are 2nd with 56 points from 32 games (in the top four), while FK Zalgiris Vilnius sit 3rd on 54 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Suduva Marijampole's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with TransINVEST Vilnius 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
FK Zalgiris Vilnius's last 5: WLWLD Most recently they beat Šiauliai 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Suduva Marijampole arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 March 2026, finished FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–0 Suduva Marijampole.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Suduva Marijampole and 1.3 for FK Zalgiris Vilnius. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Suduva Marijampole 34%, draw 22%, FK Zalgiris Vilnius 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Value angle: FK Zalgiris Vilnius to win at 2.45 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Suduva Marijampole 1–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Suduva Marijampole34%fair 2.92 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.20
FK Zalgiris Vilnius44%fair 2.28 · @2.45
2.45Expected goals
1.12Suduva Marijampole xG
1.32FK Zalgiris Vilnius xG
58%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Suduva Marijampole 1.1 – 1.3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
On our numbers Suduva Marijampole have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FK Zalgiris Vilnius 44%.
How many goals will there be in Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Our predicted score is Suduva Marijampole 1–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius?
Suduva Marijampole vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius (A Lyga) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 12:15 (West Africa Time) at Marijampole Football Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
