Value bet: Preston Lions to win @ 1.77 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPreston Lions to win ✗65% · @1.77
Double chancePreston Lions or draw ✗85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗12% · fair 8.58
Preston Lions vs South Melbourne preview and prediction
The match
South Melbourne travel to Genis Steel Stadium in the Victoria NPL on Saturday 11 April (06:00 WAT) to face Preston Lions.
Form guide
Preston Lions's last 5: LWDLW Most recently they lost to Hume City 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
South Melbourne's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Dandenong City 4–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Preston Lions and 0.8 for South Melbourne. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Preston Lions 65%, draw 21%, South Melbourne 15%.
Safer route: Preston Lions or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Preston Lions to win at 1.77 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Preston Lions 2–0 South Melbourne. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Preston Lions65%fair 1.54 · @1.77
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @3.65
South Melbourne15%fair 6.82 · @3.80
2.86Expected goals
2.02Preston Lions xG
0.84South Melbourne xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Preston Lions 2.0 – 0.8 South Melbourne expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Preston Lions to win✗
65%
1.54
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Preston Lions or draw✗
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Half-time result
Preston Lions ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Preston Lions / FT Preston Lions✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.58
–
Form
Preston Lions – last 6
LWDLWW
28 Mar
@ Hume City
2–3
L
20 Mar
vs Avondale
2–1
W
13 Mar
vs Sunshine Georgies
1–1
D
8 Mar
vs Heidelberg United
0–1
L
1 Mar
@ Melbourne City II
3–0
W
20 Feb
vs St. Albans Saints
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
South Melbourne – last 6
WLLWWW
31 Mar
vs Dandenong City
4–2
W
21 Mar
@ Dandenong Thunder
0–3
L
15 Mar
@ Vanuatu United
0–2
L
13 Mar
@ Green Gully
1–0
W
7 Mar
vs Bentleigh Greens
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Solomon Kings
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Preston Lions and South Melbourne.
What is the prediction for Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
On our numbers Preston Lions have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and South Melbourne 15%.
How many goals will there be in Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
Our predicted score is Preston Lions 2–0 South Melbourne, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Preston Lions vs South Melbourne?
Preston Lions vs South Melbourne (Victoria NPL) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 06:00 (West Africa Time) at Genis Steel Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Victoria NPL · Australia · Genis Steel Stadium
Heidelberg United2
Altona Magic2
Oakleigh Cannons3
Hume City2
Dandenong City3
Bentleigh Greens0
Dandenong Thunder1
Green Gully1