Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Liverpool Montevideo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 1.94 – our chance 63% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓63% · @1.94
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.67
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.69
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo preview and prediction
The match
Liverpool Montevideo host Cerro Largo in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 13:45 (WAT) at Estadio Belvedere. Liverpool Montevideo are 1st with 30 points from 13 games (top of the table), while Cerro Largo sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Liverpool Montevideo's last 4: DDLL Most recently they drew with Independiente Medellin 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.6 for Liverpool Montevideo and 0.6 for Cerro Largo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool Montevideo 63%, draw 24%, Cerro Largo 14%.
Safer route: Liverpool Montevideo or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Liverpool Montevideo to win at 1.94 – 63% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Liverpool Montevideo or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool Montevideo63%fair 1.60 · @1.94
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.10
Cerro Largo14%fair 7.26 · @3.95
2.22Expected goals
1.62Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.60Cerro Largo xG
49%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–011%
1–111%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.6 – 0.6 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✓
63%
1.60
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✓
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.69
–
Form
Liverpool Montevideo – last 4
DDLL
25 Feb
@ Independiente Medellin
0–0
D
20 Feb
@ Cerro
1–1
D
18 Feb
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Defensor Sporting
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cerro Largo – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool Montevideo and Cerro Largo.
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Liverpool Montevideo or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro Largo 14%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 13:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
