Value bet: Defensor Sporting to win @ 3.35 – our chance 35% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Torque to win ✓41% · @2.08
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓9% · fair 10.81
Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Atletico Torque take on Defensor Sporting on Friday 27 February, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio Centenario. Atletico Torque are 2nd with 28 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Defensor Sporting sit 13th on 12 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 16 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Atletico Torque and 1.3 for Defensor Sporting. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Defensor Sporting to win at 3.35 – 35% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Atletico Torque 1–1 Defensor Sporting. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Torque41%fair 2.47 · @2.08
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.20
Defensor Sporting35%fair 2.82 · @3.35
2.73Expected goals
1.42Atletico Torque xG
1.31Defensor Sporting xG
56%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–19%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Atletico Torque 1.4 – 1.3 Defensor Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Torque to win✓
41%
2.47
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Torque / FT Atletico Torque✓
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
9%
10.81
–
Form
Atletico Torque – last 2
WD
22 Feb
@ Wanderers
4–0
W
17 Feb
vs Juventud
2–2
D
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Defensor Sporting – last 2
WW
21 Feb
vs Cerro Largo
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Liverpool Montevideo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Torque and Defensor Sporting.
What is the prediction for Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting?
On our numbers Atletico Torque have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Defensor Sporting 35%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting?
Our predicted score is Atletico Torque 1–1 Defensor Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting?
Atletico Torque vs Defensor Sporting (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Centenario.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
