Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 53% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓57% · @1.55
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓83% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.05
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.28
Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
Penarol host Deportivo Maldonado in the Primera División Apertura on Monday 23 February, with kick-off at 00:30 (WAT) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo. Penarol are 5th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Penarol and 1.0 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.05 – 53% on our numbers against 49% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.32. Predicted score: Penarol 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Penarol57%fair 1.75 · @1.55
Draw26%fair 3.81 · @3.90
Deportivo Maldonado17%fair 6.00 · @5.25
2.73Expected goals
1.71Penarol xG
1.02Deportivo Maldonado xG
53%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
0–17%
0–07%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 1.0 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+26%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-30%
-23%
Our expected goals here
1.24
0.87
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Penarol to win✓
57%
1.75
1.55
Double chance
Penarol or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.32
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.27
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Penarol / FT Penarol✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
10%
10.28
–
Form
Penarol – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ Central Espanol
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Penarol and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.32.
Who will win Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Penarol have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Maldonado 17%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Penarol vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 23 February 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
