Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.51 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.51Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 55% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.34
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.15
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.08
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Cerro take on Liverpool Montevideo on Friday 20 February, kicking off at 22:45 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Troccoli. Cerro are 9th with 18 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Liverpool Montevideo sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Cerro and 1.3 for Liverpool Montevideo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro 33%, draw 22%, Liverpool Montevideo 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 55% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.51. Predicted score: Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro33%fair 2.99 · @3.10
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.10
Liverpool Montevideo44%fair 2.26 · @2.20
2.33Expected goals
1.06Cerro xG
1.28Liverpool Montevideo xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–010%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.1 – 1.3 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
44%
2.26
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.29
1.34
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.83
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.55
1.51
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.46
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.08
–
Form
Cerro – last 1
L
16 Feb
@ Albion FC
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Liverpool Montevideo – last 2
LL
18 Feb
vs Independiente Medellin
1–2
L
14 Feb
vs Defensor Sporting
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Liverpool Montevideo.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.51.
Who will win Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Cerro have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Liverpool Montevideo 44%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Friday 20 February 2026 at 22:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Troccoli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
