Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Nova Iguaçu to win @ 1.94 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNova Iguaçu to win ✗59% · @1.94
Double chanceNova Iguaçu or draw ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.36
Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá preview and prediction
The match
The Carioca 1 sees Nova Iguaçu take on CFRJ Maricá on Monday 16 February, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Nova Iguaçu and 0.8 for CFRJ Maricá. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nova Iguaçu 59%, draw 24%, CFRJ Maricá 17%.
Safer route: Nova Iguaçu or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.93.
Value angle: Nova Iguaçu to win at 1.94 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nova Iguaçu or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Nova Iguaçu 1–0 CFRJ Maricá. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nova Iguaçu59%fair 1.70 · @1.94
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.15
CFRJ Maricá17%fair 5.85 · @3.85
2.54Expected goals
1.73Nova Iguaçu xG
0.81CFRJ Maricá xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–110%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Nova Iguaçu 1.7 – 0.8 CFRJ Maricá expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nova Iguaçu to win✗
59%
1.70
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Nova Iguaçu or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.83
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nova Iguaçu / FT Nova Iguaçu✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.36
–
Form
Nova Iguaçu
No recent results on record.
CFRJ Maricá
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nova Iguaçu and CFRJ Maricá.
What is the prediction for Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá?
Our pick is Nova Iguaçu or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá?
On our numbers Nova Iguaçu have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and CFRJ Maricá 17%.
How many goals will there be in Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá?
Our predicted score is Nova Iguaçu 1–0 CFRJ Maricá, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá?
Nova Iguaçu vs CFRJ Maricá (Carioca 1) kicks off on Monday 16 February 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Janio Moraes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Carioca 1 · Brazil · Estadio Janio Moraes
Fluminense3
Bangu1