Serie B · Brazil · Estadio CastelãoCeara vs Novorizontino prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.98 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
Value bet: Novorizontino to win @ 2.38 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Ceara 1.1 – 1.4 Novorizontino expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Novorizontino shade it despite being away from home – 46% to win, against 32% for Ceara.
Ceara have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Novorizontino have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. Novorizontino come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.1 for Ceara, 1.4 for Novorizontino). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 50% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.85 is close to our fair price of 1.98. For a bigger price, Novorizontino to win at 2.38 is our value angle (46% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Novorizontino to win ✗ | 46% | 2.19 | 2.38 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 55% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Novorizontino / FT Novorizontino ✗ | 25% | 3.94 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.52 | – |
Form
Ceara – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Fortaleza EC | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Atletico Goianiense | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Sport Recife | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Vila Nova | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Londrina | 2–1 | W |
| 19 Aug | @ Nautico Recife | 0–1 | L |
Novorizontino – last 6
| 13 Sep | vs Cuiaba | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Sep | @ Botafogo SP | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Avai | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Sport Recife | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Aug | @ Athletic Club | 4–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs America Mineiro | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ceara and Novorizontino.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Novorizontino | 37 | +34 | 70 |
| 2 |  Juventude | 37 | +23 | 68 |
| 3 |  Vila Nova | 37 | +15 | 66 |
| 4 |  Criciuma | 37 | +7 | 62 |
| 5 |  Fortaleza EC | 37 | +11 | 62 |
| 6 |  CRB | 37 | +6 | 58 |
| 7 |  Goias | 37 | -2 | 58 |
| 8 |  Atletico Goianiense | 37 | +10 | 58 |
| 9 |  Sport Recife | 37 | +8 | 55 |
| 10 |  Operario-PR | 37 | -1 | 54 |
| 11 |  São Bernardo | 37 | +10 | 52 |
| 12 |  Botafogo SP | 37 | +6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 37 | +2 | 47 |
| 14 |  Athletic Club | 37 | 0 | 47 |
| 15 |  Nautico Recife | 37 | -9 | 46 |
| 16 |  Ceara | 37 | -9 | 43 |
| 17 |  Avai | 37 | -12 | 40 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 37 | -13 | 32 |
| 19 |  America Mineiro | 37 | -28 | 29 |
| 20 |  Ponte Preta | 37 | -58 | 15 |
More Serie B predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Ceara vs Novorizontino?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Ceara vs Novorizontino?
On our numbers Ceara have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Novorizontino 46%.
How many goals will there be in Ceara vs Novorizontino?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Ceara vs Novorizontino?
Ceara vs Novorizontino (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Castelão.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.