Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Fortaleza EC to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFortaleza EC to win ✗38% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.80
Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Vila Nova take on Fortaleza EC on Wednesday 22 July, kicking off at 01:35 (WAT) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga. Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Fortaleza EC sit 5th on 62 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: LLWLW Most recently they lost to Criciuma 0–2 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Fortaleza EC's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat Novorizontino 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Fortaleza EC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Vila Nova and 1.2 for Fortaleza EC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 37%, draw 26%, Fortaleza EC 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Fortaleza EC to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Fortaleza EC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova37%fair 2.73 · @2.42
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
Fortaleza EC38%fair 2.65 · @3.10
2.34Expected goals
1.16Vila Nova xG
1.18Fortaleza EC xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.2 – 1.2 Fortaleza EC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fortaleza EC to win✗
38%
2.65
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fortaleza EC / FT Fortaleza EC✗
21%
4.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.80
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
LLWLWL
18 Jul
@ Criciuma
0–2
L
10 Jul
@ Juventude
0–1
L
6 Jul
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
26 Jun
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
20 Jun
vs Nautico Recife
4–3
W
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fortaleza EC – last 6
WLWWDL
18 Jul
vs Novorizontino
1–0
W
12 Jul
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–1
L
3 Jul
vs Ponte Preta
2–0
W
28 Jun
vs Sport Recife
2–1
W
21 Jun
@ CRB
1–1
D
17 Jun
vs America Mineiro
0–3
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Fortaleza EC.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Fortaleza EC 38%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Fortaleza EC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC?
Vila Nova vs Fortaleza EC (Serie B) kicks off on Wednesday 22 July 2026 at 01:35 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
