Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultGoias to win ✗44% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.97
Goias vs Sport Recife preview and prediction
The match
Sport Recife travel to Estádio da Serrinha in the Serie B on Thursday 23 July (00:30 WAT) to face Goias. Goias are 7th with 58 points from 37 games (in the top half), while Sport Recife sit 9th on 55 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Goias's last 5: WDWWL Most recently they beat Ponte Preta 2–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Sport Recife's last 5: DDLLD Most recently they drew with Operario-PR 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goias arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.3 for Goias and 1.0 for Sport Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Goias 44%, draw 26%, Sport Recife 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Goias 1–1 Sport Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Goias44%fair 2.27 · @2.22
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.15
Sport Recife30%fair 3.33 · @3.30
2.35Expected goals
1.31Goias xG
1.04Sport Recife xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–110%
0–010%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Goias 1.3 – 1.0 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Goias
Sport Recife
Attack vs Serie B average
-10%
+15%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.29
1.03
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Goias to win✗
44%
2.27
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Goias / FT Goias✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.97
–
Form
Goias – last 6
WDWWLD
18 Jul
@ Ponte Preta
2–1
W
12 Jul
@ CRB
2–2
D
5 Jul
vs Ceara
2–0
W
28 Jun
@ Nautico Recife
1–0
W
21 Jun
vs Operario-PR
0–3
L
14 Jun
@ Athletic Club
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sport Recife – last 6
DDLLDD
18 Jul
vs Operario-PR
2–2
D
11 Jul
vs Botafogo SP
3–3
D
4 Jul
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
1–2
L
19 Jun
vs Atletico Goianiense
1–1
D
14 Jun
@ São Bernardo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Goias and Sport Recife.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Goias vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Goias have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sport Recife 30%.
How many goals will there be in Goias vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Goias vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is Goias 1–1 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Goias vs Sport Recife?
Goias vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Serrinha.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
