Athletic Club vs São Bernardo prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: São Bernardo to win @ 3.95 – our chance 32% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAthletic Club to win ✓44% · @1.96
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.62
Athletic Club vs São Bernardo preview and prediction
The match
São Bernardo travel to Estádio Joaquim Portugal in the Serie B on Thursday 23 July (23:30 WAT) to face Athletic Club. Athletic Club are 14th with 47 points from 37 games (in the bottom half), while São Bernardo sit 11th on 52 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Athletic Club's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Atletico Goianiense 0–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
São Bernardo's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Avai 1–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Athletic Club arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Athletic Club and 1.1 for São Bernardo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Athletic Club 44%, draw 25%, São Bernardo 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.05.
Value angle: São Bernardo to win at 3.95 – 32% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Athletic Club 1–1 São Bernardo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Athletic Club44%fair 2.29 · @1.96
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.25
São Bernardo32%fair 3.16 · @3.95
2.42Expected goals
1.31Athletic Club xG
1.11São Bernardo xG
54%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Athletic Club 1.3 – 1.1 São Bernardo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
Attack vs Serie B average
+5%
+20%
Goals conceded vs average
+8%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.49
1.33
Our own ratings from every Serie B result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Athletic Club to win✓
44%
2.29
1.96
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
1.45
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Athletic Club / FT Athletic Club✗
24%
4.21
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.62
–
Form
Athletic Club – last 6
DDLWLD
18 Jul
@ Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
14 Jul
@ Ceara
0–0
D
8 Jul
vs Operario-PR
0–1
L
28 Jun
vs Avai
1–0
W
20 Jun
@ Londrina
0–2
L
14 Jun
vs Goias
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
São Bernardo – last 6
DDLLLD
17 Jul
vs Avai
1–1
D
12 Jul
vs Cuiaba
2–2
D
6 Jul
@ Vila Nova
1–2
L
27 Jun
@ Criciuma
0–1
L
21 Jun
vs Juventude
0–1
L
14 Jun
vs Sport Recife
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Athletic Club and São Bernardo.
What is the prediction for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
On our numbers Athletic Club have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 25% and São Bernardo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Our predicted score is Athletic Club 1–1 São Bernardo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Athletic Club vs São Bernardo?
Athletic Club vs São Bernardo (Serie B) kicks off on Thursday 23 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Joaquim Portugal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
