Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Sport Recife to win @ 3.90 – our chance 30% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCriciuma to win ✓48% · @1.99
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.80
Criciuma vs Sport Recife preview and prediction
The match
The Serie B sees Criciuma take on Sport Recife on Saturday 4 July, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Criciuma are 4th with 62 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Sport Recife sit 9th on 55 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Criciuma's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat São Bernardo 1–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sport Recife's last 5: LDDDW Most recently they lost to Fortaleza EC 1–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Criciuma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.3 for Criciuma and 0.9 for Sport Recife. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 60% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Criciuma 48%, draw 22%, Sport Recife 30%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Sport Recife to win at 3.90 – 30% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Criciuma 1–0 Sport Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Criciuma48%fair 2.07 · @1.99
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @3.20
Sport Recife30%fair 3.38 · @3.90
2.15Expected goals
1.26Criciuma xG
0.89Sport Recife xG
55%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–110%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Criciuma 1.3 – 0.9 Sport Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Criciuma to win✓
48%
2.07
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.65
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Criciuma / FT Criciuma✓
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.80
–
Form
Criciuma – last 6
WWDWWD
27 Jun
vs São Bernardo
1–0
W
24 Jun
@ America Mineiro
1–0
W
16 Jun
vs Ceara
1–1
D
6 Jun
vs Londrina
1–0
W
30 May
@ Avai
2–1
W
25 May
@ Operario-PR
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sport Recife – last 6
LDDDWL
28 Jun
@ Fortaleza EC
1–2
L
19 Jun
vs Atletico Goianiense
1–1
D
14 Jun
@ São Bernardo
0–0
D
11 Jun
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
31 May
vs Nautico Recife
2–0
W
28 May
vs Fortaleza EC
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Criciuma and Sport Recife.
What is the prediction for Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
On our numbers Criciuma have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sport Recife 30%.
How many goals will there be in Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
Our predicted score is Criciuma 1–0 Sport Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Criciuma vs Sport Recife?
Criciuma vs Sport Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
