Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife preview and prediction
The match
Vila Nova host Nautico Recife in the Serie B on Saturday 20 June, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT). Vila Nova are 3rd with 66 points from 37 games (in the top four), while Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 20 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Vila Nova's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Cuiaba 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nautico Recife's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Novorizontino 2–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Vila Nova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Vila Nova and 1.1 for Nautico Recife. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vila Nova 45%, draw 23%, Nautico Recife 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Vila Nova 1–1 Nautico Recife. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vila Nova45%fair 2.22 · @2.34
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Nautico Recife32%fair 3.15 · @3.15
2.40Expected goals
1.34Vila Nova xG
1.06Nautico Recife xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–19%
2–08%
From our goals model: Vila Nova 1.3 – 1.1 Nautico Recife expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vila Nova to win✓
45%
2.22
2.34 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vila Nova / FT Vila Nova✓
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.26
–
Form
Vila Nova – last 6
LWWWWD
14 Jun
@ Cuiaba
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
1–0
W
31 May
@ Londrina
1–0
W
24 May
@ America Mineiro
2–1
W
17 May
vs Avai
2–0
W
4 May
vs Athletic Club
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Nautico Recife – last 6
DLLWWL
14 Jun
@ Novorizontino
2–2
D
9 Jun
vs Fortaleza EC
0–1
L
31 May
@ Sport Recife
0–2
L
22 May
vs Cuiaba
1–0
W
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vila Nova and Nautico Recife.
What is the prediction for Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
On our numbers Vila Nova have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Nautico Recife 32%.
How many goals will there be in Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Our predicted score is Vila Nova 1–1 Nautico Recife, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife?
Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 20 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
