Value bet: Cuiaba to win @ 2.46 – our chance 44% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCuiaba to win ✓44% · @2.46
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗70% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba preview and prediction
The match
Ponte Preta host Cuiaba in the Serie B on Tuesday 9 June, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Moisés Lucarelli. Ponte Preta are 20th with 15 points from 37 games (in the bottom three), while Cuiaba sit 13th on 47 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 32 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ponte Preta's last 5: DLLWW Most recently they drew with Botafogo SP 0–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Cuiaba's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat CRB 2–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.8 for Ponte Preta and 1.1 for Cuiaba. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely.
Value angle: Cuiaba to win at 2.46 – 44% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Ponte Preta 0–1 Cuiaba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ponte Preta31%fair 3.25 · @3.25
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.80
Cuiaba44%fair 2.26 · @2.46
1.89Expected goals
0.82Ponte Preta xG
1.07Cuiaba xG
47%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–015%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–27%
From our goals model: Ponte Preta 0.8 – 1.1 Cuiaba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cuiaba to win✓
44%
2.26
2.46 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.77
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cuiaba / FT Cuiaba✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.20
–
Form
Ponte Preta – last 6
DLLWWD
1 Jun
vs Botafogo SP
0–0
D
24 May
@ CRB
2–4
L
18 May
vs Londrina
1–4
L
25 Apr
vs America Mineiro
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Avai
2–1
W
2 Apr
vs Ceara
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cuiaba – last 6
WLDLDL
1 Jun
vs CRB
2–0
W
22 May
@ Nautico Recife
0–1
L
17 May
vs Novorizontino
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Anápolis
0–4
L
23 Apr
vs Botafogo SP
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Porto Vitória
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ponte Preta and Cuiaba.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba?
On our numbers Ponte Preta have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cuiaba 44%.
How many goals will there be in Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba?
Our predicted score is Ponte Preta 0–1 Cuiaba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba?
Ponte Preta vs Cuiaba (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 9 June 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Moisés Lucarelli.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
