Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Nautico Recife or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.25
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Nautico Recife to win @ 1.93 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultNautico Recife to win60% · @1.93
Double chanceNautico Recife or draw80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–016% · fair 6.09
Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro preview and prediction
The match
America Mineiro travel to face Nautico Recife in the Serie B on Sunday 10 May (20:00 WAT). Nautico Recife are 15th with 46 points from 38 games (in the bottom half), while America Mineiro sit 19th on 29 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Nautico Recife's last 4: WLWW Most recently they beat Athletic Club 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
America Mineiro's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Cianorte 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Nautico Recife arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.5 for Nautico Recife and 0.7 for America Mineiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 48%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nautico Recife 60%, draw 20%, America Mineiro 20%.
Safer route: Nautico Recife or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Value angle: Nautico Recife to win at 1.93 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Nautico Recife or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Nautico Recife 1–0 America Mineiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nautico Recife60%fair 1.67 · @1.93
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @3.35
America Mineiro20%fair 5.10 · @3.90
2.23Expected goals
1.53Nautico Recife xG
0.70America Mineiro xG
48%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Nautico Recife 1.5 – 0.7 America Mineiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nautico Recife to win
60%
1.67
1.93 ▲
Double chance
Nautico Recife or draw
80%
1.24
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.48
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nautico Recife / FT Nautico Recife
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
16%
6.09
–
Form
Nautico Recife – last 4
WLWW
27 Apr
@ Athletic Club
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Ceara
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Atletico Goianiense
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs Santa Cruz
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
America Mineiro – last 6
WLLLWD
7 May
vs Cianorte
3–2
W
4 May
vs CRB
1–2
L
29 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–2
L
25 Apr
@ Ponte Preta
0–1
L
16 Apr
vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Tombense
3–3
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nautico Recife and America Mineiro.
What is the prediction for Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro?
Our pick is Nautico Recife or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro?
On our numbers Nautico Recife have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and America Mineiro 20%.
How many goals will there be in Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro?
Our predicted score is Nautico Recife 1–0 America Mineiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro?
Nautico Recife vs America Mineiro (Serie B) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
