Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.74
Maardu vs Tartu Welco preview and prediction
The match
Tartu Welco travel to face Maardu in the Esiliiga A on Sunday 24 May (13:00 WAT). Maardu are 6th with 45 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Tartu Welco sit 1st on 80 points (top of the table). A gap of 35 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Maardu's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Nõmme United II 2–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Tartu Welco's last 5: DWDLW Most recently they drew with Flora II 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Tartu Welco arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.1 for Maardu and 2.9 for Tartu Welco. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maardu 10%, draw 19%, Tartu Welco 71%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Maardu 1–2 Tartu Welco. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maardu10%fair 10.10 · @5.50
Draw19%fair 5.21 · @5.00
Tartu Welco71%fair 1.41 · @1.36
4.01Expected goals
1.13Maardu xG
2.87Tartu Welco xG
56%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–28%
0–37%
1–16%
1–46%
From our goals model: Maardu 1.1 – 2.9 Tartu Welco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tartu Welco to win✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Double chance
Tartu Welco or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.76
–
Half-time result
Tartu Welco ahead at half-time✗
55%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tartu Welco / FT Tartu Welco✗
51%
1.98
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.74
–
Form
Maardu – last 6
WLDLWD
9 May
vs Nõmme United II
2–1
W
1 May
@ Flora II
0–5
L
23 Apr
vs FC Tallinn
1–1
D
18 Apr
@ Nõmme Kalju II
2–3
L
11 Apr
vs FCI Levadia II
3–2
W
3 Apr
vs Tallinna Kalev
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tartu Welco – last 6
DWDLWW
17 May
vs Flora II
3–3
D
1 May
@ FC Tallinn
2–0
W
27 Apr
vs Elva
3–3
D
23 Apr
@ Viimsi
0–2
L
17 Apr
vs FCI Levadia II
3–2
W
11 Apr
@ Nõmme Kalju II
5–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maardu and Tartu Welco.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Maardu vs Tartu Welco?
On our numbers Maardu have a 10% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Tartu Welco 71%.
How many goals will there be in Maardu vs Tartu Welco?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maardu vs Tartu Welco?
Our predicted score is Maardu 1–2 Tartu Welco, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Maardu vs Tartu Welco?
Maardu vs Tartu Welco (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
