Value bet: Nõmme United II to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNõmme United II to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · fair 1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.75
Maardu vs Nõmme United II preview and prediction
The match
Nõmme United II travel to face Maardu in the Esiliiga A on Saturday 9 May (10:30 WAT). Maardu are 6th with 45 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Nõmme United II sit 9th on 40 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Maardu's last 5: LDLWD Most recently they lost to Flora II 0–5 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Nõmme United II's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Tallinna Kalev 4–4 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Nõmme United II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Nõmme United II 4–1 Maardu.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.5 for Maardu and 2.5 for Nõmme United II. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maardu 26%, draw 12%, Nõmme United II 62%.
Value angle: Nõmme United II to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Maardu 1–2 Nõmme United II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maardu26%fair 3.78 · @3.10
Draw12%fair 8.46 · @4.20
Nõmme United II62%fair 1.62 · @1.80
4.02Expected goals
1.54Maardu xG
2.48Nõmme United II xG
60%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–37%
1–17%
2–27%
0–26%
2–35%
From our goals model: Maardu 1.5 – 2.5 Nõmme United II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
On our numbers Maardu have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 12% and Nõmme United II 62%.
How many goals will there be in Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Our predicted score is Maardu 1–2 Nõmme United II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Maardu vs Nõmme United II?
Maardu vs Nõmme United II (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
