Value bet: Tallinna Kalev to win @ 2.62 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTallinna Kalev to win ✗42% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓70% · @1.25
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.82
Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev preview and prediction
The match
The Esiliiga A sees Maardu take on Tallinna Kalev on Friday 3 April, kicking off at 10:30 (WAT). Maardu are 6th with 45 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Tallinna Kalev sit 7th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Maardu's last 4: LLWD Most recently they lost to Elva 0–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Tallinna Kalev's last 4: LWLL Most recently they lost to Viimsi 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 2.0 for Maardu and 2.2 for Tallinna Kalev. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 79% and both teams to score at 70%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Maardu 37%, draw 21%, Tallinna Kalev 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (70%) at 1.25.
Value angle: Tallinna Kalev to win at 2.62 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Maardu 2–2 Tallinna Kalev. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maardu37%fair 2.71 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.80
Tallinna Kalev42%fair 2.36 · @2.62
4.17Expected goals
2.01Maardu xG
2.16Tallinna Kalev xG
70%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–27%
1–27%
2–17%
1–17%
2–35%
1–35%
From our goals model: Maardu 2.0 – 2.2 Tallinna Kalev expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tallinna Kalev to win✗
42%
2.36
2.62 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.42
1.25
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Tallinna Kalev ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tallinna Kalev / FT Tallinna Kalev✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.82
–
Form
Maardu – last 4
LLWD
12 Mar
vs Elva
0–3
L
8 Mar
@ Nõmme United II
1–4
L
21 Feb
vs Tallinna Kalev II
3–1
W
15 Feb
vs Flora II
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Tallinna Kalev – last 4
LWLL
19 Mar
@ Viimsi
0–2
L
15 Mar
vs FC Tallinn
5–1
W
11 Mar
@ Paide
0–6
L
5 Mar
@ Tartu Welco
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
25%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Maardu and Tallinna Kalev.
What is the prediction for Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
On our numbers Maardu have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Tallinna Kalev 42%.
How many goals will there be in Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
Our predicted score is Maardu 2–2 Tallinna Kalev, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev?
Maardu vs Tallinna Kalev (Esiliiga A) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
